How Artificial Societies helped a private equity firm extend due diligence beyond primary research

A private equity firm worked with Artificial Societies while conducting diligence prior to exclusivity on a specialist software group with a portfolio of established brands. The immediate objective was to test the early investment thesis and decide whether the opportunity warranted further time and spend on diligence. At this stage, the firm would typically do this in-house with the support of an expert network or panel provider, or commission a tightly scoped research exercise through a commercial due diligence advisor. However, the client wanted that initial research to go further. Alongside a primary survey of decision-makers, it wanted a simulated version of the same audience that it could return to as new questions emerged, without repeatedly commissioning research with the same audience. Some of those questions were also commercially sensitive. Testing reactions to potential ownership changes, product consolidation or future pricing directly with customers could expose the investment thesis and potentially unsettle the market. The brief was therefore to support the immediate pre-exclusivity decision while building a reusable research asset that could carry forward into deeper diligence and, if the investment proceeded, value creation.

Working with a panel partner, we fielded the client’s survey with 130 software decision-makers. The research established a baseline of product usage, satisfaction, renewal intentions, switching barriers and appetite for new capabilities. We then created 130 digital twins, each anchored in an individual participant’s survey responses. To enrich the profiles beyond the questionnaire, we combined deep market research with proprietary industry intelligence and client-supplied expert interview transcripts covering procurement, implementation and operational workflows. These sources informed modelled context around each persona while preserving the distinction between observed responses and inferred characteristics.

The primary survey established a strong retention baseline: 98% of accepted responses indicated that the organisation was likely or very likely to renew, while 83% described transferring historical data as difficult or very difficult. The simulation added a more conditional picture. When presented with a scenario in which their current product would be retired in 24 months, 42% of personas said they would review alternatives or leave rather than migrate. This highlighted a risk for further diligence: changes to the product portfolio could prompt customers to reconsider systems they wouldn’t otherwise consider. The follow-ups also sharpened the value creation questions. 52% of personas would accept no price increase to move to a new cloud-based product, suggesting that migration alone would not establish a compelling case for higher pricing. Testing longer contracts revealed another condition: 48% would accept a three-year agreement with a 10% discount only if it included a price freeze and an exit clause if service levels fell. The engagement gave the investment team a more targeted set of risks and opportunities to investigate before exclusivity, alongside a reusable society for further testing. As the investment thesis developed, the client could explore new scenarios and refine potential value creation initiatives without commissioning a fresh panel for every follow-up question.