Skip to content

Midterms 2026 · Simulation

What could the next Congress pass?

Now
After 3 November, the ten Congresses we simulated come down to two

Choose a bill

What it does

Ban senators and representatives from owning individual stocks while in office.

  • Democrat
  • Republican
  • Independent
  • Paler squares would vote against

Stopped by the filibuster.

59 senators would vote for it: a majority, but 1 short of the 60 needed to get past a filibuster. The House has 257, enough.

  1. House · 218 needed257 forPasses
  2. Senate · 60 needed59 for1 short
  3. President · Assumed to sign–Not reached

Each square represents a real member or candidate, in the seat they would hold. Their vote is simulated from their own public record.

Each cell is the senators, then the House members, who would vote for the bill. It needs 218 House votes and 60 senators, or 51 in a budget bill when one party holds both chambers. Then it needs the President’s signature, or 67 senators and 290 House members to override a veto.

Policy119th CongressRepublicans hold the SenateDemocrats win both chambers
Changes from today, whoever wins
Ban members of Congress from owning stocks59/ 257 senators and House members, Stopped by the filibuster63/ 287 senators and House members, Becomes law64/ 280 senators and House members, Becomes law
Body cameras for immigration agents59/ 258 senators and House members, Stopped by the filibuster60/ 274 senators and House members, Passes, then vetoed61/ 265 senators and House members, Passes, then vetoed
Who wins decides it
Cap drug prices at what other rich countries pay50/ 236 senators and House members, No Senate majority52/ 250 senators and House members, Stopped by the filibuster55/ 248 senators and House members, Becomes law
Bring back the larger Obamacare subsidies49/ 234 senators and House members, No Senate majority51/ 239 senators and House members, Stopped by the filibuster52/ 230 senators and House members, Passes, then vetoed
Ends the same way, whoever wins
Make data centres pay for their own grid upgrades71/ 379 senators and House members, Becomes law78/ 396 senators and House members, Becomes law78/ 396 senators and House members, Becomes law
  • Becomes law
  • Passes, then vetoed
  • Stopped by the filibuster
  • No majority

What Washington expects next

1,249 simulated people who make and influence policy in Washington, asked on 2 November what each outcome would lead to.

Most likely next

56%Supporters keep pressing through petitions and 2028 pledges

  • The fight moves to the President’s and officials’ trading19%
  • The issue fades18%
  • Something else7%

As law, it becomes a compliance job: members sell or move into funds. 28% expect the fight to move to the President’s and officials’ trading. House members feel it most: 32% say it changes their organisation’s work, against 12% if it stalls.

Each square is one of the 1,249. The lines are the society's links between people who share attributes such as where they work, not real-world contacts. Hover over a square to read what that person said.

Ban members of Congress from owning stocks

If it becomes law

  • Members sell their stocks or move into funds and blind trusts57%
  • The fight moves to the President’s and officials’ trading28%
  • More members retire rather than sell8%

Say it changes their organisation’s work a lot or a great deal12%

If it stalls in the Senate

  • Supporters keep pressing through petitions and 2028 pledges56%
  • The fight moves to the President’s and officials’ trading19%
  • The issue fades18%

Say it changes their organisation’s work a lot or a great deal7%

As law, it becomes a compliance job: members sell or move into funds. 28% expect the fight to move to the President’s and officials’ trading. House members feel it most: 32% say it changes their organisation’s work, against 12% if it stalls.

Body cameras for immigration agents

If it passes, then is vetoed

  • Democrats tie cameras to DHS funding, risking a shutdown39%
  • DHS keeps cameras as agency policy, little changes34%
  • Lawsuits and court orders push wider use12%

Say it changes their organisation’s work a lot or a great deal12%

If the filibuster stops it

  • Democrats tie cameras to DHS funding, risking a shutdown41%
  • DHS keeps cameras as agency policy, little changes36%
  • Lawsuits and court orders push wider use10%

Say it changes their organisation’s work a lot or a great deal12%

In this pair, reaching the President’s desk made no difference: a fight over DHS funding is the top answer either way, and the same 12% say it changes their organisation’s work.

Cap drug prices at what other rich countries pay

If it becomes law

  • Drug makers challenge it in court37%
  • Medicare and Medicaid patients pay less26%
  • Drug makers raise prices in other rich countries15%

Say it changes their organisation’s work a lot or a great deal22%

If it stalls in the Senate

  • Drug makers challenge it in court32%
  • Drug makers raise prices in other rich countries25%
  • Drug makers delay launches abroad20%

Say it changes their organisation’s work a lot or a great deal10%

The biggest gap between two outcomes: twice as many say it changes their organisation’s work if it becomes law. Under the law, 41% of Democrats expect lower prices, while 21% of Republicans expect cuts to research.

Bring back the larger Obamacare subsidies

If it passes, then is vetoed

  • Premiums keep rising and enrolment falls31%
  • Democrats tie it to the next funding deadline30%
  • It becomes a 2028 campaign issue19%

Say it changes their organisation’s work a lot or a great deal23%

If it stalls in the Senate

  • Premiums keep rising and enrolment falls31%
  • Democrats tie it to the next funding deadline26%
  • It becomes a 2028 campaign issue20%

Say it changes their organisation’s work a lot or a great deal21%

A veto drew the same answers as a filibuster. Rising premiums are the most chosen next step either way (31%), and about one in five say it changes their organisation’s work.

In the two pairs that compared a veto with a filibuster, both drew the same answers. Only the outcomes that become law changed what this simulated audience expects.